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Syllabus Intelligence in National Security and Strategy - 58734
עברית
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Last update 22-03-2021
HU Credits: 2

Degree/Cycle: 2nd degree (Master)

Responsible Department: International Relations

Semester: 2nd Semester

Teaching Languages: Hebrew

Campus: Mt. Scopus

Course/Module Coordinator: Dr. Joshua Krasna

Coordinator Email: joshua.krasna@mail.huji.ac.il

Coordinator Office Hours: Mondays 1700-1800

Teaching Staff:
Dr.

Course/Module description:
Intelligence refers to the process of collecting and analyzing policy-relevant, often difficult to obtain, information. Accurate intelligence is crucial for policy-makers and practitioners to formulate and implement strategies with regard to the core issues of national security, including counter-terrorism, counter-proliferation, foreign policy and defense policy.
This course will introduce students to the craft of collecting, processing, analyzing and disseminating intelligence. It will also discuss intelligence’s role in policy-making and examine key issues and challenges facing intelligence communities.

Course/Module aims:
1. The course will help students develop an informed appreciation of the uses, capabilities and limitations of intelligence, which is crucial for those who work in global affairs.
2. The students will learn to think and look at the world like intelligence officers.
3. The students will master policy-relevant writing.

Learning outcomes - On successful completion of this module, students should be able to:
1. Distinguish between different types of intelligence.

2. Identify importance and contribution of intelligence to policymaking.

3. Categorize and explain different pathologies and problems of intelligence.

4. Analyze a contemporary issue using the tools of intelligence analysis.

5. Categorize the different tools which intelligence affords the policymaker and policy implementer to carry out foreign and national security policy.

Attendance requirements(%):
80

Teaching arrangement and method of instruction: Lectures, in-class exercise, watching (before class) and discussing movies, discussion forum

Course/Module Content:
1. What is intelligence? Introduction

2.The intelligence cycle, types of intelligence, collection disciplines.

3.Intelligence communities: Israeli and others.

4. Intro to intelligence analysis (including in-class exercise on building collection plan).

5. Intelligence failures and pathologies.

6. Producer-consumer relations: Intelligence and the Policymaker.

7.Intelligence against terror and proliferation. Intelligence Cooperation.

8.Covert action, secret diplomacy, and psychological warfare.

9.Intelligence for diplomacy and negotiations.

10. Conclusion: is intelligence still relevant? What have we learned?

Required Reading:
שעור ראשון
1)ג'ון לה קארה, הצליין החשאי או אחד מספרי אלן פירסט.
2) Fingar, Thomas. “Intelligence and Grand Strategy”. Orbis, Winter 2012.
3) Treverton, Gregory, "Risks and Riddles", Smithsonian Magazine, June 2007
4) Lowenthal, Mark M., "Introduction: What is 'Intelligence'?", in Intelligence: from Secrets to Policy, CQ Press, Washington, 2003, pp. 1-9, 41-86.
5) Warner, Michael, "Wanted: A Theory of Intelligence", Studies In Intelligence, Vol 6 No. 3, 2002, pp. 1-11.
6) Menand, Louis, “Everybody’s an Expert”. The New Yorker¸ December 5, 2005.
7) Zegart Amy. “That’s Spytainment”. Hoover Digest 2013 No. 1. https://www.hoover.org/research/thats-spytainment


שעור שני
1)) Hulnick, A. S. (2006). What’s wrong with the intelligence cycle. Intelligence and National Security, 21(6), 959-979.

2) Cadell, Joseph. “Discovering Soviet Missiles In Cuba: How Intelligence Collection Relates to Analysis and Policy”. warontherocks.com, October 19, 2017. https://warontherocks.com/2017/10/discovering-soviet-missiles-in-cuba-intelligence-collection-and-its-relationship-with-analysis-and-policy/
3) Wilson, C. (2010 February 22). Searching for Saddam. Slate. http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/searching_for_saddam/2010/02/searching_for_saddam_5.html
4)Greg Miller, How the CIA used Crypto AG encryption devices to spy on countries for decades


שעור שלישי
1) עמוס גלבוע, אפרים לפיד. מלאכת מחשבת-60 שנות מודיעין ישראלי - מבט מבפנים
2) “America’s Intelligence Community, Explained”. Washington Post, June 7, 2014. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v&eq;OFIG6k4B3zg
3) Yaakov Lappin. Israel’s Intelligence “Factory”. BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 798, April 16, 2018.
4) Eyal Pascovich. “Military Intelligence and Controversial Political Issues: the Unique Case of Israeli Military Intelligence”. Intelligence and National Security, 2013.


מכלול רביעי
1) ברון, איתי, המחקר המודיעיני: פרקטיקה אחראית בעידן של תמורות ושינויים
2) “מודיעין – הלכה ומעשה” – המודיעין בהשתנות מהירה, עמ' 40-51, 59-67 . https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/app/uploads/2017/10/lowres.pdf

3) Lowenthal, Mark, "Intelligence Analysis: A Guide to Its Study", Intelligencer: Journal of U.S. Intelligence Studies, Summer/Fall 2011.
4) Shlomo Gazit, "Estimates and fortune-telling in Intelligence Work", International Security, Volume 4, Number 4, Spring 1980, pp. 36-56.

5) דרור, יחזקאל, "המודיעין כמחנך הקברניט" ו- "התמודדות עם דיווחים עמומים", בתוך המודיעין והקברניט, משרד הבטחון (האוניבריסטה המשודרת), 2004.
6) "Predicting the future: Unclouded vision", the Economist, September 26th 2015

מכלול חמישי
1) Martin Kramer, “Seven Black Swans In The Middle East”, https://mosaicmagazine.com/observation/politics-current-affairs/2019/09/seven-black-swans-in-the-middleeast/
2) Friedman, Uri. “The Ten Biggest American Intelligence Failures”. Foreign Policy, January 3, 2012. http://foreignpolicy.com/2012/01/03/the-ten-biggest-american-intelligence-failures/
3) Betts, Richard K., "Analysis, War and Decision: Why Intelligence Failures are Inevitable", pp. 359-379 in Thibault, G.E. (ed.), the Art and Practise of Military Strategy, NDU, Washington, 1984
4) ברקאי, אברהם, משק כנפי הטעות, המרכז למורשת מודיעין.
5) Wohlstetter, Roberta, "Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision", pp. 345-358 in Thibault, G.E. (ed.), the Art and Practise of Military Strategy, NDU, Washington, 1984
6) Jervis, Robert, "Reports, Politics and Intelligence Failures: the Case of Iraq", in Andrew, Christopher et al, Secret Intelligence: A Reader, Routledge, London, 2009.


מכלול שישי
1) Trump Blasts His Own Intelligence Agencies | The Daily Show.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v&eq;5vmpZf7shw0&feature&eq;youtu.be
2) המודיעין והקברניט, משרד הבטחון ("האוניברסיטה המשודרת"), 2004. פרקים ט', א', ה', ו', ט'ו
3) Peter C. Oleson, “Who Are the Customers for Intelligence?.” Intelligencer: Journal of U.S. Intelligence Studies, Fall 2017.
4) Stephen Marrin, "Why Intelligence Analysis has Limited Influence on American Foreign Policy"
5)Jervis, Robert, “The Politics and Psychology of Intelligence and Intelligence Reform”, the Forum, vol 1 issue 4, 2006.
6) הרכבי, יהושפט, "סבכים בין מודיעין לקברניט", בתוך מודיעין ובטחון לאומי, הוצאת מערכות, 1987, עמ' 439-453 או Harkabi, Yehoshafat, "The Intelligence-Policymaker Tangle", Jerusalem Quarterly, no. 30, Winter 1984.
7) Rovner, Josh. "Is Politicization Ever a Good Thing?" Intelligence and National Security, Vol. 28, No. 1 (2013), pp. 55-67. See also Rovner, Josh. Fixing the Facts: National Security and the Politics of Intelligence. Cornell University Press, Ithaca, 2011.

מכלול שביעי
1) Byman, Daniel, "The Intelligence War on Terrorism", Intelligence and National Security, Vol. 29 no. 6, 2014, pp. 837-863.
2) Crawford, Michael, "Exploring the Maze: Counter-proliferation Intelligence", Survival, vol. 53 no. 2, April–May 2011, pp. 131-158.
3) CBC Investigation: Hariri Assassination: Getting away with murder, November 22, 2010
i. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v&eq;Szv9D2ymfPY
ii. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v&eq;9gw5ff9lApM

מכלול שמיני
1) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v&eq;5GfdH9AzAXE
2) https://www.haaretz.co.il/news/syria/EXT-MAGAZINE-1.4675626
3) Galeotti, Mark, "Putin's Secret Weapon", Foreign Policy, July 7, 2014.
4) Scott L “Secret Intelligence, Covert Action and Clandestine Diplomacy”, Intelligence and National Security, 19,2 (2004)
5) Cormac, Rory, “Disruption and Deniable Interventionism: Explaining the Appeal of Covert Action and Special Forces In Contemporary British Policy”, International Relations, vol. 3 no. 2, 2017, pp. 169-191.
6) Makovsky, David, "the Silent Strike", New Yorker, September 17, 2012
7) Perry, Mark, "The Driver", Foreign Policy, April 29, 2013 and/or Filkins, Dexter, "The Shadow Commander", the New Yorker, September 30, 2013.
8) Yaakov Lapin, Israel’s Information Campaigns: An Alternative to Kinetic Strikes, April 17, 2019. https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/israel-information-campaigns/ and/or Coercive Disclosure: Israel’s Weaponization Of Intelligence Ofek Riemer And Daniel Sobelman August 30, 2019

משלול תשיעי
1) אפרים הלוי, אדם בצל
2) חזי כרמל (עורך), מודיעין לשלום, משכל 1998
3) Nathan L, “The Intelligence Requirement of International Mediation,” Intelligence and National Security, 29,2 (2014)
4) G. Philip Hughes and Peter C. Oleson , “Diplomacy & Intelligence: Strange Bedfellows”. Intelligencer: Journal of U.S. Intelligence Studies, Spring 2016

שעור אחרון
1) Horns Of A Dilemma: Seeing Beyond The Horizon – Intelligence Challenges In A Rapidly Changing World. April 25, 2019. https://warontherocks.com/2019/04/horns-of-a-dilemma-seeing-beyond-the-horizon-intelligence-challenges-in-a-rapidly-changing-world/
2) Agrell, Wilhelm. “the Next Hundred Years? Reflections on the Future of Intelligence”. Intelligence and National Security, vol 7 no. 1, February 2012.
3) (https:// Global Trends, National Intelligence Council, January 2017 www.dni.gov/files/documents/nic/GT-Full-Report.pdf)

Additional Reading Material:
שיעור שני
1) Clift AD, “Intelligence in the internet era”, Studies in Intelligence 47, 3 (2008)
2) Bamford, James. the Shadow Factory (see also his earlier the Puzzle Palace)
3) Farrow, Ronan. “Harvey Weinstein’s Army of Spies”. New Yorker, November 6, 2017. https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/harvey-weinsteins-army-of-spies
4) “Master Of Deception: The Tale of Yehuda Gil”. From Brussels to Beirut. October 23, 2014.
5) Dulles, Allen. the Craft of Intelligence
3) Kathy Gilsinan, “The Khashoggi Tape and the Limits of ‘Raw’ Intelligence”, The Atlantic, November 29, 2018 https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/11/bolton-khashoggi-trump-tape-saudi-arabia-salman/576988/

שעור שלישי
1) Lowenthal, Mark M., Intelligence: from Secrets to Policy, CQ Press, Washington, chap. 2-3, 15.
2) Richelson, Jeffrey. the U.S. Intelligence Community, Westview Press (תרפרפו).

מfלול רביעי
1) קופרווסר, יוסי, "רלוונטיות ואובייקטיביות במודיעין", בתוך עיונים במודיעין, כרך א גליון 1, אוקטובר 2007, עמ' 66-72.
2) (skim) Heuer, Richards J. Jr. Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency. 1999. https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/PsychofIntelNew.pdf,k.
3) (מוצע)Oppenheimer, Michael F., “From Prediction to Recognition: Using Alternate Scenarios to Improve Foreign Policy Decisions”, SAIS Review of International Affairs, vol. 32 No. 1, Winter-Spring 2012, pp. 19-31.
3) "National security: Intelligent intelligence - Just how good are government analysts?", the Economist, Jul 19th 2014 (also: Mandel and Barnes, “Accuracy of Forecasts in Strategic Intelligence”, https://www.pnas.org/content/111/30/10984).
6) Watanabe, Frank, "Fifteen Axioms Of Intelligence Analysis", Studies In Intelligence, No. 1, 1997.

מכלול חמישי
1) Was the Arab Spring a black-swan event? Elena Ianchovichina https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2018/03/28/was-the-arab-spring-a-black-swan-event/
2) Pollack, Kenneth, "Spies, Lies and Weapons: What Went Wrong?", Atlantic Monthly, Vol. 293 No. 1, Jan-Feb 2004, Pp. 79-92.
3) John A. Gentry, “The Intelligence of Fear”, Intelligence and National Security, 2017, Vol. 32, no. 1, 9–25.
4) Byman, Daniel, "Strategic Surprise and the September 11 Attacks" in Andrew, Christopher et al, Secret Intelligence: A Reader, Routledge, London, 2009.
5) Wirtz, James J. “Responding to Surprise”. Annual Review of Political Science. 2006. 9:45–65 doi: 10.1146/annurev.polisci.9.062404.170600
6) Lowenthal, Mark M., "Towards a Reasonable Standard for Analysis: How Right, How Often on Which Issues?", Intelligence and National Security, Vol. 23 no. 3, June 2008, pp. 303-315
7) . The Butler Report or the 9/11 Commission Report
7) Erik J. Dahl, “Missing the Wake-Up Call: Why Intelligence Failures Rarely Inspire Improved Performance”. Intelligence and National Security, Vol. 25 no. 6 (December 2010), pgs. 778-799.

מכלול שישי
8) Shay Hershkovitz & David Siman-Tov. “Collaboration Between Intelligence and Decisionmakers: The Israeli Perspective”. International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, 31:3, 2018.
9) Lowenthal, Mark, "Tribal Tongues: Intelligence Consumers, Intelligence Producers", Washington Quarterly, Winter 1992
10) Gardiner, L. Keith, "Squaring the Circle: Dealing with Intelligence-Policy Disconnects", Intelligence and National Security, vol. 6 no. 1, 1991.
11) Heymann, Hans, "The Intelligence-Policy Relationship", 1984
12) Pillar, Paul R., "Where Politicized Intelligence Comes From", the National Interest, August 30, 2013.


מכלול שביעי
1) Lefebvre S, “The difficulties and dilemmas of international intelligence cooperation”, International Journal of Intelligence & Counter-Intelligence 16, 4 (2003)
2) Lowenthal, Mark M, Intelligence: from Secrets to Policy, CQ Press, Washington, chapter 12.
3) Catherine Collins and Douglas Frantz, “The Long Shadow of A.Q. Khan: How One Scientist Helped the World Go Nuclear”, Foreign Affairs, January 31, 2018.
4) מומלצת הצפיה בסדרה: the Night Manager

מכלול שמיני
1) Yossi Melman And Dan Raviv. “Inside Israel’s Secret Raid on Syria’s Nuclear Reactor: Now the Story Can Be Told”. Politico. March 20, 2018
2) Covert Action in this Day and Age. http://www.inss.org.il/insspodcast/?utm_source&eq;activetrail&utm_medium&eq;email&utm_campaign&eq;INSS%20Podcast%205
3) Rovner, J. “Intelligence in the Twitter Age.” International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence 26, 2 (2013)
4) Evan Osnos, David Remnick and Joshua Yaffa, “Trump, Putin and the New Cold War”, the New Yorker, March 6, 2017 https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/03/06/trump-putin-and-the-new-cold-war#editorsnote
5) William Stevenson, A Man Called Intrepid or Ewen Montagu, the Man that Never Was

Course/Module evaluation:
End of year written/oral examination 45 %
Presentation 0 %
Participation in Tutorials 25 %
Project work 0 %
Assignments 30 %
Reports 0 %
Research project 0 %
Quizzes 0 %
Other 0 %

Additional information:
You will be expected to keep up¬‐to‐date with current events in intelligence and international relations. One can never go wrong reading an international quality newspaper – such as the Economist, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Guardian, Washington Post, Le Monde, FAZ or Financial Times – regularly. We will discuss good sources for information about intelligence in class. Frequently, I will incorporate current events into discussion.
The idea is to ensure that a wide range of perspectives and issues can be discussed in the course. Make sure you are prepared briefly to talk about your readings – you will be expected to be able to contribute insights based on your assignment and may be asked directly to say something about it.


I would like you to read one or more of the following books by the fifth lesson of the course (prices listed are from Amazon):
• Daniel Kahneman. Thinking, Fast and Slow. Farrar, Strauss and Giroux, New York, 2013. (8-11 dollars)
• Philip Tetlock. Expert Political Judgement. Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2005. (20 dollars).
• Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable. Random House, New York, 2007. (8-12.50 dollars)
• Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. Superforecasting: the Art and Science of Prediction. Crown Publishers, New York, 2015 (11-20 dollars)
 
Students needing academic accommodations based on a disability should contact the Center for Diagnosis and Support of Students with Learning Disabilities, or the Office for Students with Disabilities, as early as possible, to discuss and coordinate accommodations, based on relevant documentation.
For further information, please visit the site of the Dean of Students Office.
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